Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 74514.570039 78752.723719 82994.376758 87554.947346 92316.586460 97138.343253 102386.919573
2025-03-09 67736.230803 74233.807826 80924.026430 88317.602957 96249.540877 104493.620346 113699.945092
2025-03-16 62183.490815 70147.525015 78534.139615 88003.952370 98378.994106 109379.522940 121904.377236
2025-03-23 58983.022043 68147.821532 77979.174131 89276.755753 101866.228792 115429.679963 131112.240708
2025-03-30 56121.895964 66224.411747 77239.203779 90091.638768 104625.576818 120500.178106 139097.594663
2025-04-06 53277.743872 64095.687765 76066.791253 90229.990643 106459.370482 124404.759866 145675.242810
2025-04-13 50680.212117 62076.223346 74861.433643 90181.915202 107950.987293 127819.418183 151619.495514
2025-04-20 49167.086178 61205.995502 74880.136358 91453.455077 110883.144138 132823.712661 159351.402786
2025-04-27 47792.970337 60409.625765 74906.921963 92665.750478 113694.063638 137657.431242 166879.918754
2025-05-04 46217.427269 59288.162127 74476.292528 93272.610668 115743.025748 141573.340113 173329.508945
2025-05-11 44460.511390 57866.291641 73614.995716 93299.761048 117050.782511 144582.821943 178696.171638
2025-05-18 42978.259476 56714.026215 73018.843084 93591.143014 118629.921973 147883.542176 184395.096976
2025-05-25 41444.745875 55458.798976 72269.130879 93680.361181 119967.886987 150921.614629 189835.528455
2025-06-01 40587.273185 55013.949167 72486.594883 94934.358834 122713.762235 155657.233108 197344.482683
2025-06-08 39061.587740 53666.116015 71533.536628 94696.276022 123597.639240 158124.656985 202112.026199
2025-06-15 38393.605786 53384.050944 71887.991132 96067.047306 126455.440144 162993.180408 209817.273303
2025-06-22 37537.891306 52824.062784 71861.986623 96936.060025 128676.052016 167082.279225 216587.548943
2025-06-29 36407.212055 51864.616695 71291.473927 97083.775635 129970.573078 170020.375271 221946.542038
2025-07-06 35250.858167 50831.906282 70591.102715 97032.950990 130989.151028 172601.827422 226863.053338
2025-07-13 34757.147712 50660.697746 70989.178539 98382.184546 133779.701753 177396.777668 234554.452255
2025-07-20 34263.954866 50470.038828 71346.293922 99668.329505 136488.677531 182100.375938 242159.315396
2025-07-27 33531.891632 49930.393758 71223.505119 100312.085059 138363.843185 185756.668715 248466.133903
2025-08-03 32587.035299 49070.310824 70650.022513 100340.885322 139427.554455 188379.069479 253473.789441